70% chance of crypto bottoming before June amid trade fears: Nansen

The cryptocurrency market may see a local bottom in the next two months amid global uncertainty over ongoing import tariff negotiations, which have been limiting investor sentiment in both traditional and digital markets.

US President Donald Trump is set to detail on April 2 his reciprocal import tariffs, measures aimed at reducing the country’s estimated trade deficit of $1.2 trillion in goods and boosting domestic manufacturing. 

While global markets took a hit from the first tariff announcement, there is a 70% chance for cryptocurrency valuations to find their bottom by June, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.

The research analyst told Cointelegraph:

“Nansen data estimates a 70% probability that crypto prices will bottom between now and June, with BTC and ETH currently trading 15% and 22% below their year-to-date highs, respectively. Given this data, upcoming discussions will serve as crucial market indicators.”

“Once the toughest part of the negotiation is behind us, we see a cleaner opportunity for crypto and risk assets to finally mark a bottom,” she added.

Related: Bitcoin can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

Both traditional and cryptocurrency markets continue to lack upside momentum ahead of the US tariff announcement.

“For the main US equity indexes and for BTC, the respective price charts failed to resurface above their 200-day moving averages significantly, while lower-lookback price moving averages are falling,” wrote Nansen in an April 1 research report. 

“Fragile market psychology highlights the necessity of “good news,” mainly on US growth and on tariffs,” added the report.

Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys Bitcoin dip with $1.9B purchase

Bitcoin needs to hold $82k amid crypto market “wait and see” mode: analyst

Investors are currently in “wait and see mode” and are hesitant to take on large positions as markets lack direction.

However, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained above the “extreme fear” mark for a third consecutive session, which suggests a marginal improvement despite continued caution, Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.

“This reinforces the view that markets are in a wait-and-see mode,” Zlatareva told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the $82,000 – $85,000 range after experiencing a period of directional recalibration in Q1. The asset is navigating this zone with key support at $82,000 and upside potential toward $86,500 and $90,000 if broader sentiment stabilizes.”

Other traders are awaiting a Bitcoin breakout above $84,500 as a signal for more upside momentum amid the ongoing tariff uncertainty.

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